2007 - Freaking Out About The Future - Don’t
Bruce Warila | Wed, November 21, 2007 | Alternative Music Marketing, Disruptive Technology, Making Money In Music, Music Industry Commentary DARK GLOOM
Everybody from Gene Simmons (Kiss Fame) to 50% of the artists I encounter blogging - are freaking out about the future. Some of the comments are outright nasty; some would rather die than give away their music; some hate the notion of ad-supported music; some hate Apple and iPods; and others can’t believe it’s come to t-shirts and touring to make money.
CHILL OUTThe sky isn’t falling, and your music will have value beyond the pennies you are currently making from selling MP3s. The future is bright. Go back to making music and let the industry get over this unpleasant hump. Things are going to change and you will make money.
GIVE AWAY YOUR MP3s
I regularly advise artists NOT to hold out for download revenue. You can read this, this, and this to find out why I recommend giving away at least a demo version (or better) of your MP3s.
THE CD IS ALL DONE
I no longer consider selling CDs as a serious revenue option (depends on the genre). Hoping that CD sales will magically rebound is for dreamers. This blog and this post are for those that have moved beyond the CD. You may sell some CDs in 2008-2009, but beyond 2010, CDs will become the novelty item that vinyl is today.
THE MP3 SHOULD BE ALL DONE
The MP3 sucks as a package; it was invented twenty years ago when Jimmy Carter was president, and at a time when computers had about as much power as today’s Happy Meal toys. The MP3 was a necessary evil that changed everything, but its’ time has come. It’s a blasted little invention that TRANSPORTS (key term here) nothing but a hearing problem. When Apple can transport 60 minutes of color television programming, soundtrack included, to your pocket for $1.99, you know the MP3 is a dinosaur in comparison.
YOU WILL MAKE MONEY
Here’s why you don’t have to freak out about the future: Fat Packages (FP) and Cool Streams (CS). (I know what you’re thinking – it’s a physical contradiction.)
FP - FAT PACKAGES
FP - ROLL YOUR OWN
In the near future, you will be able to sit down in front of something I will call your Digital Asset Browser; it’s something like iTunes for ALL of your digital stuff - including: your songs, your images, your blog entries, your videos, your show schedule, your fan widgets, your multi-player fan games, your friends list, your comments, your art, your lyrics, your links, your ringtones, YOUR advertisers, and etc. You will then be able to CUSTOM ROLL all of this stuff into a tidy FAT PACKAGE and sell it to your fans.
FP - RUNS ON EVERY DEVICE AND EVERYWHERE
Your Fat Package will run on every single capable mobile and desktop device on earth including television, and it will be deployable upon every social network on the planet.
FP - THE FREE AD-SUPPORTED VERSION
The FREE, sharable, tradable version will be ad-supported. You will receive a portion of the ad revenue when users interact with your Fat Package. If you are worried about a world gone crazy with advertising, then you should know that this type of package would be one of the most attractive advertising vehicles on earth. The matrix of quality user info (iPhones spitting out profile data for example) combined with the “information-generating” value of this type of engaging content will attract higher CPMs (dollars per thousand impressions) then web pages do now.
FP - THE NO ADS VERSION
Consumers will purchase buckets of ad-free time, and they will have the option of applying these minutes to playing with your FAT Package without being molested by intrusive ads. You will also have the option of turning features on and off depending on which version (ads or not) of your FAT Package fans are using.
FP - THEFT WON’T MATTER
As soon as it’s “stolen” these things will switch to ad-mode. So, it doesn’t matter; theft (sharing) becomes a good thing.
FP - DYNAMIC PUBLISHING
Everything you change from your songs to your schedule is automatically reflected in every FAT Package you put into the marketplace. This isn’t MySpace or Facebook, this is your own FAT Package of things you will simply publish and sell. These things can appear everywhere and anywhere; fans will collect them, display them and trade them.
FP - HOW MUCH MONEY WILL YOU MAKE?
Like anything that is desirable or not, it depends on the quality of your package. Over time, I believe a single copy of a FAT Package will generate twenty times the revenue of an MP3. And don’t forget, you will be updating your package continually; thus increasing its’ value over time.
FP - PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE
Since this stuff is not in the marketplace yet, you should be asking yourself what you could do to get ready for the future? I am going to follow up with more on this later, but my primary advice is to learn how to be “episodic”. Your FAT package will have more value when fans know that it’s constantly and continually updated with a stream of good stuff. You may want to reconsider the notion of a “band”; team up with a filmmaker, a writer, a cartoonist, a photographer, and/or other creative people.
At the very least, you should reconsider the notion of an album and/or what a song is. Where a song was a permanent snapshot in time, and an album was a time capsule, with FAT Packages this no longer has to be the case; songs could evolve forever, and albums will become journeys. You have to learn how to think like a television series writer; tell a story, develop characters, create drama and mysteries, lash your music to visuals, release things over a multi-year period, and continually evolve your “art”. (etc. etc. etc.).
Yeah, this raises the bar and makes life more challenging, however think about this: in 2007-2008 there is barely a circumstance where people listen to music – when a screen or monitor is not present; this includes the car, the gym, the desk, and the pocket. The ability to have a visual or interactive component is always there now. This is not unprecedented; think back one hundred years – this was the only way music was experienced – live, with visuals, and/or attached to a story.
The notion of JUST listening to music without experiencing something visual, physical or interactive is only 100 years old. All throughout the rest of time, “music” was always more than just an auditory experience.
You can read more about my vision for FAT Packages by clicking here.
CS - COOL STREAMS
CS - COOL STREAMS – THE NEW RADIO
If a FAT Package is the new “album” that fans acquire when they believe in an artist, then a Cool Stream is the new “radio” that consumers will use when they want to passively listen to music.
CS - COOL STREAMS ARE CUSTOM STREAMS
Music recommendation engines combined with music streaming services will enable anyone, almost anywhere, to dial into their own custom stream of music. Simple interfaces already enable users to funnel and filter music like never before. Basic programming options such as these (basic examples below) will continually shape the streams of music we passively listen to.
- Enter twenty songs you like.
- Enter five songs you hate.
- Press/Click here if you never want to here that song again.
- Press/Click here to skip that song into next week.
- Press/Click here to put that song into heavy rotation.
- Slide this dial to balance your playlist between existing hits and new music.
- Press/Click here to add that song to your favorites.
- Enable my friends to add songs to my playlist.
CS - COOL STREAMS EVERYWHERE
It won’t be long before you can listen to your own cool stream everywhere. Cool streams are already available on your computer, and more and more handheld devices will offer this capability. The automotive industry is embracing this technology, and you will even be able to push your stream into the locations you are traveling to such as bars and nightclubs, albeit with some restrictions.
CS - CROSS STREAMING
What happens when 100 people are trying to push their streams into the same bar? The "stream god" puts all of the streams into a funnel and plays what makes sense – given everyone’s lists and preferences.
CS - STREAM BIDDING
Want to listen to your Cool Stream in the pub between 9:00 PM and 10:00 PM? Using your mobile phone, outbid the other patrons for the right to listen to your stream. Stream bidding is another example of the “user interfaces” that will change how music is consumed.
CS - GETTING IN WILL BE EASY
Have you heard the phrase “an ass for every seat”? Music recommendation engines will become so freaking useful over the next three years that it will be possible for the listeners that enjoy your exact flavor, color, genre, niche and brand of music, even if it’s just one listener, to FINALLY find your music. Every artist will have an opportunity to find the perfect genetic mate between his/her music and the fan(s) that may love it.
CS - EVERYWHERE AND ANYWHERE
The type of streaming services described here will be EVERYWHERE and ANYWHERE. This is a bit of important redundancy, however this stuff will be so prevalent in life that it will seem like “pennies from heaven” for artists. Meaning: your music will be placed into so many streams, so often, and in so many places, that the micro revenue opportunities will be endless. Remember, these things will find the “ass for every seat”.
CS - GETTING PUSHED OUT WILL BE EASY
While getting into these streams may just mean passing some quality threshold standards, I believe getting pushed out may be just as easy. Let’s say your new song has been streamed 99 times, and on every occasion someone pushes the “I never want to hear that song again” button - well, your song may be on the way out of the system for good - or at the very least, your play frequency will drop to minimal.
CS - WITH ADS OR WITHOUT
It’s probably obvious, but services offering Cool Streams will make streams available with ads or without. In the case of without, consumers will purchase buckets of ad-free time. Either way, you will share in the revenue streams that are generated from the use of these services.
CS - HOW MUCH MONEY WILL YOU MAKE?
Unfortunately, I believe that the amount of, or fraction of “pennies” you may make from each stream is still unsettled, or it has not been clearly established in my mind. Some services are paying artists directly, while other services are using the established industry-royalty-infrastructure. What’s more clear to me is this: while today’s music industry can be characterized as “hit driven”, tomorrows music industry will be characterized as a “slow burn”.
CS - THE SLOW BURN
Let’s say for example that you have just created a very good (subjective - I know) alternative rock song; you entered the song into the recommendation-god-machine, and then you went about the business of your life. Given the complexity of the machine, the ebb and flow of popular culture, the size of the population, the amount of songs in the machine, and the durability of good songs – I would say that it MAY take two years to generate a return you can make a car payment with. Of course some songs will go like wildfire, but other songs may just slowly burn until they have been filtered into the adoption curve; which is continually shaped by culture and technology.
CS - WHAT CAN YOU DO NOW?
As I said at the top of this post, go back to making great music; that’s the best thing an artist can do period. There are a couple of other things you should consider: The Copyright Royalty Board is going to rule on the royalty rates that webcasters must pay when offering services such as those described here; you should consider how this may impact your future. I plan to look deeply into this – stay tuned. Also, be careful about tossing around your publishing rights. You may not be generating much of an income from publishing now, however this may be the horse that generates all of your winnings in the future.
Bruce Warila
Here are some questions I have been asked about FAT Packages, and my broad answer to all of the following questions.
QUESTIONS
- How would packages be played in a song/media player?
- How would one use packages on a social network?
- Can I add my own content to a package before sharing it?
- Can I break a package apart?
- How can I use a package when disconnected from the Internet?
- How would I use a package in a device?
ANSWER
The visual metaphor of a package or deck (shown here) is great for enabling users to grasp the concept of something larger and more powerful than an MP3; it is also great for building user interfaces around; as a software designer can enable people to perceive that they are truly building, managing, sharing and sending something concrete and tangible.
The reality is: creators of packages or decks (artists) are actually uploading assets (music, images, video, schedule info, lyrics, etc.) to a database that resides on a system of servers (The Open System), and what users (fans) are manipulating, sharing or sending is a package of “links” that are tied to a Matrix of Permissions.
The Matrix of Permissions is actually what ALLOWS things to happen. Let’s say for example, an independent software developer wants to make a web-based music player for social networks that enables fans to “upload” any number of FAT Packages into a widget that features a slick cover flow interface; let’s call this widget the “FAT Cover Flow Player”.
If the software designer has done a great job, the user will perceive that he or she is uploading, dragging, dropping and sorting a bunch of FAT Packages. In reality, the user is transferring pointers or links to the assets that reside in The Open System, and when the “transfer” occurs, the Matrix of Permissions allows the FAT Cover Flow Player to access the assets within each package, and based upon the permission settings – do something with those assets, such a play music and display images and lyrics, and with or without advertisements. Conceptually, the same thing would happen when a user wants to transfer Packages to a portable device.
This seems much more complicated then tossing around MP3s, however the systems, the software, the devices and the networks we use now are much more powerful and capable than how we devote them to loving MP3s. If we want to restore the recorded music industry to growth and profitability, we have to invest in these types of seemingly-complex systems that are capable of TRANSPORTING value; that is, the type of value that consumers will pay for.
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Reader Comments (14)
Bruce,
Another really insightful post! Now if you'll excuse me before i get that there brown-nose...
Sorry for the length here- but you have have such a deep, genuine interest on the future of the 'biz,' and I am curious as to what your thoughts are concerning a couple of items.
Firstly, I am having trouble visualizing how something such as a "play list" is implemented alongside this idea of a FAT package. How would a user navigate all their packages to create and listen to a specific play list? What kind of FAT management software would be implemented to achieve this?
How do you keep something like this clean and simple for people to navigate through when all this information (songs, schedules, etc) is thrust into a social networking space like Facebook? Will different parts of this package be separable from the whole? If so what link is there then to the full "home" package, and is there any way to get advertising into each of these distinct "widgets"?
Finally, what kinds of tools do you envision being developed to assist in artist development? I can see how FAT packages and CSs would be great for marketing and getting YOU out there, but how would an artist harness this demographic data that is being sent back to them from their FAT decks?
Sorry I know this was a really loaded question (questions?), but I have yet to come across another music2.0 blog that's not just set on new ways to monetize and distribute mp3s, but developing real tools for people to use. I happen to think the future of the music industry is exciting, not scary.
I look forward to your response!
-rilez
The question of a playlist also crossed my mind when reading about the FAT package. Also, does the user have any control over the content of the package? If the package is constantly evolving, could the fan's favorite elements of the package be deleted at the artist's will?
*WHATS TO STOP THE BIG BOYS TAKING ALL THE MEDIA CONTROL & THUS EVENTUALY LEAVING NO ROOM FOR NEW ARTISTS OR NEW DEVELOPEMENT & CREATIVITY IN MUSIC OR THE VISUALS FOR THAT MATTER?
*WILL THE ADD SELECTIONS BE IN KEEPING TO HELP PROMOTE & ENHANCE THE MUSIC EXPERIENCE & OTHER VISUAL DISPLAYS ACCOMPANING THE MUSIC. LIKE IT BE NO GOOD PUTING HEADACHE OR PAIN RELEIF OR INDIGESTION ORHEMMEROIDE ADDS ON MUSIC PAGES ETC NOW WOULD IT?
* WHAT IF I HOOKED UP WITH A TEAM OF PEOPLE & DELIBERATELY DECIDE TO WORK ON OUSTING OTHER PEOPLES MUSIC & ART ETC COS I WANT IT OUT THE WAY TO GET MY FRIENDS UP THER? simalar things already go on on the internet like internet bullying eg(if you visit or go to that site your ratings will go down or worse!)HOW WILL YOU CONTROL THIS SORT OF BULLY OR MANIPULATION TATICS BY CERTAIN GENRE DOMINATORS OR CERTAIN PERSONS WITH A SIDED INTREST IN SEEING TO IT A PARTICULAR GENRE OF MUSIC RULES SO IT CAN RULE THE CLUB CIRCUITES ETC.
*WHAT SORT OF COST ARE GOING TO BE INVOLVED IN THE SET UP FOR A PERSON TO START FROM SCRATCH TO DEVELOPE & UTALISE THEIR PACKAGES INTO THE MARKET PLACE?
*WHAT IS GOING TO STOP THE COPYCAT SYSTEM OF YOUR WORKeg I MAKE SOME KWL PICTURES TO GO WITH MY MUSIC WHATS TO STOP SOMEBODY ELSE USING THE SAME & JUST CHANGING THEIR MUSIC NAME OR BAND OR TAG TO IT?
*IS THE COST TO CONSUMERS GOING TO BE LOW ENOUGH THAT CONSUMERS SHALL ACTUALY BE REGULAR CUSTOMERS?
* HOW WILL YOU STOP SMART PEOPLES BLOCKING YOUR CONTENT WHICH THEY OFTEN DO NOW IN A NUMBER OF WAYS?
* HOW WILL NEW MUSIC HAVE A CHANCE TO BE HEARD WHEN MOST OF THE STREAMING & ADVERTISING FLOW WILL MOST LIKELY BEFLOODING THE WHOLE IDEA?
* I THINK THERE IS MANY AREAS TO BE QUESTIONED ABOUT THIS ALTHOUGH THE CONCEPT SOUNDS SOMEWHAT LIKE AN IDEA I SEE MANY PLACES FRO IT TO BE BADLY MANIPULATED & THUS THE REAL IDEA OF ARTISTIC CREATION COULD WELL n TRULEY BE LOST?
* I HAVE SOME THOUGHTS ON SYSTEMS OF IMPROVEMENT MYSELF FOR A BETTER MEDIA EXPERIENCE BUT IM NOT A PROGRAMMER OR SOFTWARE MAKER BUT I DO KNOW WHAT ANNOYS ME OR I FIND AUKWARD OR THINK SHOULD BE IMPROVED TO MAKE THE ENTIRE EXPERINCE BETTER.
very interesting. When the technology is available I would be very interested in it. What's the alternative to mp3 though... ogg?
Hi there all
My name is Matt I run a successful business (http://www.kurb.co.nz) providing digital and physical media services to musicians and other creative entrepreneurs.
I have recently written a post in response to the “new models” debate and other stuff written in this blog and touched on a few new concepts of my own including
- “label” takes 100% of content retail?
- wholesale and cut in every partner
- the rise and role of the “online content manager” [that’s me!]
- one flat fee for life long premium access
I am newish to blogging and focusing more on content over presentation ;] but please feel welcome to come and check it out.
http://kurbpromotion.wordpress.com/2007/12/01/matt-from-kurb-can-haz-new-music-industry-model
My brother wants 2 change hiz life around wen he get out of jail he write r&b reggea gosple and pop muzix so if u cn pleaz contact me at 703 586 0148 thank u nd it must be between 7pm nd 10 pm
thanxz
First, I realize you might not have time to follow every link posted in your comments, and that's understandable. That said, I wrote a post recently about how I would like to see distribution formats evolve to the point where musicians can update their music as it progresses, and have the updates appear automatically in the fan's media players. That's it in a nutshell, although if you want to read the whole post it's here:
http://www.keithhandy.com/internets/2007/12/13/brave-new-alternate-world-version-10/
Since I like to share what I'm working on with people, as it evolves, often releasing songs in "beta" or incomplete form before releasing the final version (and even then having second thoughts as to whether or not it was really "final"), I'm wondering if your FAT package concept would support that. I would also like to know if there's anything I can do to help make that a reality. Thanks in advance for your insight.
I agree with handing out your music for free. People will steal it anyway, it makes no difference. No one is buying cds anymore. I don't even know anyone who has ever bought an MP3 from iTunes. My band sells song downloads on iTunes in small numbers (about $50 worth a month), but our current in production sessions will be released on our website for free.
The problem now though is that regardless of how many people hear it, there is no big money that is willing to push it and sustain it anymore. Live shows are being murdered, which are the most important part in my opinion.
No one is willing to take any chances with anything that isn't already self-sufficient currently, at which point it doesn't even make sense to be signed in the first place. No new bands are going on tours anymore, because no one is putting any money into them. They aren't getting any promotion done for them. This explains why we're listening to U2 geezer rock and aren't seeing any of these young faces growing old. No one is even getting a chance to evolve.
I also see some rather negative issues with this cool streaming, like an even more homogeneous future for music in the digital realm than our top 40 friends. Unlike previously, where someone could release something very different sounding and you could eventually grown to love it after understanding it, say a particular track on an album you bought, this won't happen in this short attention span of the net. I see a lot of top 40 radio bullshit, only 100 fold. I also don't see people taking risks or chances to release original sounding material, because it will be voted away by the majority instantly. I have no faith in uneducated masses voting on what is good. I don't really see the niche marketing "ass for every seat" thing working because there will be nothing but fat asses left that need two seats.
awesome blog article. Hey I have this idea for a music site called open scream. Get back to me sometime if you are interested.
Sounds like drama to me..funny how still have the good ol' cassette player with us..
Lambo= I agree with you. This all sounds like some drama to me.
Positive music will continue to change the world and people who give, will receive.
That guy chuck who has a million negative things to say about the industry will continue to experience hardships as long as his thinking is aligned with a mentality of hardships.
People will always buy CDs. When you go and play an amazing show and blow people away, they are going to want to take home some music to listen to. I still buy cds. People buy my cds.
Powerful minds will continue to attract success and abundance!
Can't you see what the writer of this blog is doing? He is using his powerful mind to convince everybody that the platforms in which he has invested in will be the standard for the future. The thing is that he is probably right. His intention and influence is so strong that people will invest in his ideas just based on his positivity of their future success.
Thats the same thing you can do with anything that you put your mind to.
The best message from this article = Continue to make great music and the market will figure out a way for you to make money soon enough.
Regardless of what those who wish for the CD's demise say, the CD is going to continue to dominate for years to come. After all not even a 320kbps MP3 sounds as good as a CD. Not to say we should not all be paying attention to what is over the horizon.
Cd sales of bad music crammed down our throats by corporate giants manipulating the mainstream are down, but CD sales of independent and unsigned artists music has been increasing steadily for the last few years. (check with any replicating plant)
Look at many concerts and as part of merchandising you can also find CD's pf that very show recorded as you watched it live.. Even DVD's of such are available at some shows.. I know many artists all who report excellent sales at live events.
When media corporations like Clear Channel got into the live event promotions business, it was clearer than their channels what would happen and it has.
When an artist is signed to appear at clear channel owned and operated concert venues, that artist is going to get a lot of heavy rotation on clear channel radio.
Even if the music is crap, they will play it heavy. Makes sense they want folks to turn out for the concert so they can make more money.
Add to that the corporate think that puts MBA's in charge of A&R departments and you have a recipe for disaster.. Rock artist on the country charts, RAP being mixed with Rock, and it's all a mess no-one particularly wants to hear, fragmenting the audience into niches.
However that is a good thing for independent labels and artists.. Finding the artists niche and marketing to thatniche is whole lot more cost effective than using the shotgun approach of national promotions as the major labels do.
Oh, and you will still want a label..There simply is no other mechanism in place for proper tracking without that little sticker (Of course you can create your own label) so if you want revenue (royalty payments) you will need that record label, at least until the industry comes up with a solution acceptable to the courts. And don't forget the publisher, you still need them too for mechanical licensing rights. and yep, you can start one of those yourself too.
A lot easier to learn the business and work within legally accepted industry standards than it is to buck the system and try starting a whole new process. Those who choose to work outside of "industry standards" as decided in court case after court case for years, simply have no protection, few rights, and little recourse.
But then, those who want, use and make money off of free music don't even want you to think about those things. But if you really want a career in music vs a hobby in music, you'd better think about them.
Things like pop-up blockers, anti-spam,XM Radio, Sirius, TIVO and Ipods should tell any thinking person that consumers don't particularly want all those ads and commercials. Those who do, well.... they are their own little niche aren't they?
Did I rant enough?
honestly, the two concepts of cs and fp have a place in the world but unfortunately it will only include the 5-10% of people who are engulfed in their music; endlessly searching to sustain their appetite. The rest of the world who regularly consume music in a passive way will go about obtaining their content the same exact way it is being done right now; free download then straight to storage/playback item.
Fatally, CS will not work due to internet and radio serving music 24/7 and people's natural instinct to reject information that may be potentially mined when they communicate their preferences and, thus, habits to those 'paying' for the services being rendered. Long sentence but hopefully you can read through it. FP only work when people are so deep into the artist they can't get enough. Artists now need to develop all those other areas of the package to fulfill it? Budgetary issues will come into play along with cross format collateralization.
Hate to shoot down an idea that sounds so great but in opeartion, they will not float.
I have come to similar conclusions for our Public Symphony content. Similar tools already exists at Reverbnation.com, where there are effective fan capture and communication tools. I have been building the tools for Public Symphony. We have made a classic album, critically acclaimed, but expensive to promote by traditional methods.
Will the tools work to grow our fanbase and potential sales base exponentially? That depends on how I can inspire our first few hundred fans to share the widgets and the music in exchange for capturing new email addresses, and keep inspiring them to share the music and widgets over time. So every month I will refresh the focus to new content.
e.g. http://www.reverbnation.com/publicsymphony